The tide of battle in Myanmar's Rakhine state appears to be turning as the Arakan Army, a rebel group, claims to be on the brink of defeating government junta forces. According to reports from The Irrawaddy, a Myanmar-based media outlet, the Arakan Army is close to capturing the junta's headquarters in Punnagun, a town near the capital city of Sitt.

The Arakan Army's offensive on Punnagun began on February 23, targeting the town strategically situated on the route between Yangon, the central capital, and Sitt. Despite resistance from junta forces, the Arakan Army asserts that it has effectively cut off military supplies to Punnagun from Sitt and successfully destroyed two armored vehicles belonging to the junta forces on the city's outskirts.

As the conflict escalates, the Arakan Army claims to have taken control of the Punnagun town police station and is urging the Sitte Military Command to surrender. The intensifying clashes have resulted in heavy casualties, with reports indicating the death of 12 civilians in a market and injuries sustained by 80 others.

The escalating violence has triggered a mass exodus of residents and government officials from Punnagun, with thousands fleeing the city amid fears of attacks by both junta forces and insurgents. Additionally, residents of Sitte, comprising one-third of Rakhine's population, are fleeing rural areas and the capital itself, seeking refuge elsewhere to escape potential confrontations.

In a bid to impede the Arakan Army's advance, the junta administration has resorted to drastic measures, including blowing up a bridge on the Yangon-Sitte highway to obstruct the rebel group's movement towards the city. These actions have only exacerbated the sense of fear and uncertainty among locals, many of whom are vulnerable due to their age or economic status.

The Arakan Army's recent seizure of Paktoa, a town near Sitt, underscores the group's growing influence and operational capacity in Rakhine state. Since November 13, the rebel forces have intensified their operations, capturing over 170 forts controlled by junta forces and extending their control to nine cities in neighboring Chin State.

As the conflict escalates and civilian casualties mount, the situation in Rakhine state remains precarious, with the Arakan Army's advances challenging the authority of the military junta and raising concerns about the humanitarian impact on the region's population.