Following the deflating US employment data that dashed expectations for a first rate cut in June, Asian markets saw volatility on Monday as traders assessed the likelihood of a rate decrease this year.
 
Friday saw a strong rally in Wall Street's three primary indexes as investors turned their attention from the potential implications of monetary policy to the pleasant news of 303,000 new jobs generated in the US in March.
 
Although the data also revealed declining unemployment and robust wage growth, analysts cautioned that they would make it more difficult for the Fed to carry out its previously stated three rate cuts in 2024.
 
As for this week, traders are waiting on the publication of the consumer price index reading and the minutes from the central bank's most recent meeting.
 
The CPI "will be a bigger test of whether the recent inflation bump is a trend or not", said Saxo's Redmond Wong, referring to bigger-than-expected inflation figures at the start of the year.
 
Still, Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex warned that "reasons to dismiss the employment data are becoming thinner".
 
"The economy is still growing faster than what the Fed regards as the long-term non-inflation pace."
 
There is now growing talk that the Fed will not even be able to cut rates three times this year, with some suggesting that if data continued to come in strong then officials could face pressure to hold off until 2025.
In reference to higher-than-expected inflation numbers at the beginning of the year, Redmond Wong of Saxo remarked that the CPI "will be a bigger test of whether the recent inflation bump is a trend or not."
 
But "reasons to dismiss the employment data are becoming thinner," Bannockburn Global Forex's Marc Chandler said.
 
"The economy is still growing faster than what the Fed regards as the long-term non-inflation pace."
 
There's increasing discourse that the Fed won't even be able to lower rates three times this year; some even contend that policymakers would be under pressure to wait until 2025 if statistics keep showing sharp increases.
 
According to Erik F. Nielsen of UniCredit Group, the Fed "could easily end up cutting rates only once this year, if at all, based on existing economic data," if it were only "data-dependent."
After a volatile day on Wall Street, Asian investors found it difficult to seize the lead.
 
Wellington, Shanghai, Singapore, Manila, and Seoul all fell, while Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, and Taipei all increased.
 
When state-affiliated Egyptian publication Al-Qahera reported on Monday that negotiations in Cairo to mediate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas had gone well, investors were also keeping an eye on geopolitics.
 
A senior Egyptian source was cited in the article, which stated that "significant progress is being made on several contentious points of agreement".
Israel announced a partial pullback from the region on Sunday, but even after that, it indicated it was still getting ready for military operations in Rafah, the southernmost city of Gaza.
 
Iran, which has accused Israel of being responsible for a fatal attack on its embassy in Damascus, is also a focus of attention. Iran has promised to reciprocate against Israel.
 
Israeli officials were forewarned that they "cannot escape the consequences" of last week's attack by Revolutionary Guards head general Hossein Salami.
 
Oil prices fell more than one percent on Monday as the little chance of an end to the violence affected the market.
 
Despite the robust US economy and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, they are still at five-month highs due to supply concerns over the possibility that the Middle East issue might turn into a larger conflict between Israel and Iran.
 
Following Friday's new high of $2,330.50, gold fell.
 
as a result of rate-cut wagers and concerns about geopolitics, rising sharply.
 
- Key figures around 0230 GMT -
 
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 1.4 percent at 39,517.81 (break)
 
Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 16,765.95
 
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,067.62
 
Dollar/yen: UP at 151.73 yen from 151.61 yen on Friday
 
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0838 from $1.0841
 
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2634 from $1.2637
 
Euro/pound: UP at 85.79 pence from 85.75 pence
 
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.6 percent at $85.54 per barrel
 
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.7 percent at $89.64 per barrel
 
New York - Dow: UP 0.8 percent at 38,904.04 (close)
 
London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.8 percent at 7,911.16 (close)
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