The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Thursday that it expects the US economy to grow at a slightly slower rate than previously forecast, while commending its strength and adaptability.
In a press conference, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted the resilience of the US economy, noting it as the only G20 nation whose economic output now surpasses pre-pandemic levels. The IMF's updated forecast predicts a 2.6% growth for the US this year, a slight downgrade of 0.1 percentage points from April's projection.
"The US economy has proven itself to be robust, dynamic, and adaptable to changing global conditions," Georgieva remarked, citing stronger-than-expected employment growth and a less costly disinflation process than initially feared. The IMF praised the US for its remarkable economic performance, with activity and employment continuing to surpass expectations.
However, the IMF also warned of the large fiscal deficit, which is pushing the public debt-to-GDP ratio upward, and cautioned about the ongoing expansion of trade restrictions.
On the inflation front, the IMF expressed optimism, predicting that the Federal Reserve would achieve its inflation target by mid-2025, ahead of the Fed's own projections. Despite significant rate hikes to combat post-pandemic inflation, the IMF is confident in the trajectory of US inflation.
Georgieva pointed out that the disinflation process in the US has been promising, giving the IMF confidence in its forecast. However, the IMF noted potential risks, such as slower-than-expected declines in shelter inflation and sustained nominal wage growth, which could hinder the anticipated easing of non-shelter services inflation.
During discussions, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Georgieva acknowledged the strong performance of the US economy, emphasizing the unexpected growth in economic activity and employment.
The IMF's latest forecasts reflect both commendation and caution, recognizing the achievements of the US economy while highlighting areas needing attention for sustained growth and stability.
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