New York, Nov 04, (V7N) — A recent national poll indicates a neck-and-neck race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, with both candidates receiving 49% support among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup. Just 2% of voters remain undecided.
Factors Influencing Support
Harris benefits from rising Democratic enthusiasm, a significant 20-point lead over Trump on abortion issues, and a perception that she better represents middle-class interests. Conversely, Trump’s support is bolstered by a prevailing belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction, favorable views of his previous presidency compared to President Joe Biden's performance, and a clear advantage on economic issues.
The polarization of the electorate is pronounced, highlighted by a substantial gender gap: Harris leads among women by 16 points, while Trump has an 18-point advantage among men, resulting in a net gender gap of 34 points.
Stability in Poll Results
The poll shows remarkable stability since October, with little change despite increased campaign activity. “We’ve grown further apart, and we’ve picked our corner,” noted a Republican pollster involved in the survey. The 49%-49% result is consistent with last month's poll, when both candidates were tied at 48%.
When third-party candidates are included, Trump garners 47% and Harris 46%, with 7% supporting other candidates or remaining undecided.
Turnout Scenarios
The poll also explores potential voter turnout scenarios. In a favorable environment for Republicans—where turnout among men, white voters, and those without college degrees increases—Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 50%-48%. Conversely, if turnout among women, college-educated whites, and voters of color rises, Harris leads by 3 points, 50%-47%.
Demographic Insights
Harris has strong support among Black voters (87%-9%), younger voters under 30 (57%-41%), and white voters with college degrees (55%-43%). Trump leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters overall (56%-42%), and white voters without college degrees (64%-34%).
Key Issues
On pivotal issues, Harris maintains a substantial lead over Trump on abortion (20 points) and middle-class representation (9 points). However, Trump has clear advantages on the economy (51%-41%), cost of living (52%-40%), and immigration (25-point lead).
Voters remain divided on who represents change and effectiveness; Harris is favored slightly for change (46% to 41%), while opinions on competence are nearly tied, with 47% favoring Trump and 45% for Harris.
Biden's Influence
President Biden's approval rating stands at 41%, with 58% disapproving of his performance—an increase in dissatisfaction since October. In contrast, Trump's approval rating during his presidency is now at 48%, compared to 51% disapproval.
Concerns about continuity are split, with 41% of voters worried about Harris maintaining Biden’s policies versus 40% who fear Trump would repeat his past actions.
Early Voting Trends
The poll indicates that 54% of registered voters have already cast their ballots, with an additional 11% planning to vote early. Among early voters, Harris leads Trump 53%-46%, a significant shift from the previous election cycle. Conversely, Trump holds a 16-point lead among those planning to vote on Election Day, compared to a nearly 30-point lead in 2020.
Public Sentiment
Looking ahead, 60% of voters believe the U.S. will remain divided post-election, while only 28% expect increased unity. Both candidates have similar popularity ratings, with Harris at 43% positive and 50% negative, while Trump stands at 42% positive and 51% negative.
In the congressional race, voter preference is closely contested, with 47% favoring Democratic control versus 46% for Republicans—essentially unchanged from the previous month.
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