The United Nations warned on Thursday that Myanmar’s Rakhine state is on the brink of famine due to ongoing conflict, economic collapse, and food insecurity exacerbated by civil war. The UN Development Programme (UNDP) reported that if current conditions persist, famine could hit by mid-2025, with approximately two million people at risk of starvation.

Rakhine’s economy has nearly halted as trade routes into the state have been closed, severely limiting access to essential goods and aid. Local agricultural production has been decimated, with a drastic reduction in rice cultivation due to shortages of seeds, fertilizers, and adverse weather. The UNDP estimates that Rakhine’s current rice yield will only meet 20% of its food requirements by early next year, with projected production down to 97,000 tons from 282,000 tons in 2022.

The region has also seen a surge in internally displaced people (IDPs), rising from 200,000 in late 2023 to over 500,000 by August, which further limits labor for farming. The most vulnerable groups include Rohingya Muslims and other displaced populations who face heightened risks from the food crisis.

Conflict in Rakhine intensified in November 2023 when the Arakan Army (AA) resumed hostilities against security forces, ending a ceasefire that had been in place since Myanmar’s 2021 military coup. The ongoing violence has led to hyperinflation, widespread unemployment, and worsened food insecurity, setting the stage for a humanitarian crisis.