Amid a subdued trading environment due to regional holidays, Asian equity markets experienced a downturn, mirroring a significant drop in U.S. markets. This decline was prompted by new labor cost data from the U.S., which dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut within the year.

Recent indicators from Washington suggest that the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation is far from over, despite interest rates reaching their highest levels in twenty years. This has contributed to investor unease as they await the Fed’s upcoming policy announcement, which is widely anticipated to reveal a more hawkish stance.

Following this, the non-farm payrolls data is expected to offer an updated view of the labor market, which has remained robust despite the high-interest-rate environment.

On Tuesday, the three major indexes on Wall Street plunged following the release of the employment cost index—a key measure of wage inflation favored by the Fed—which reported higher figures than anticipated for the first quarter.

This development struck a blow to the already waning hopes for a Fed rate cut this year, with predictions now suggesting at most one cut by January, a stark contrast to the six cuts anticipated at the beginning of 2024. Some analysts are even speculating about the possibility of a rate increase.

Investors retreated in response to the data, which coincided with another set of figures indicating a significant drop in U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest point since July 2022.

According to Stephen Innes from SPI Asset Management, the wage data sends a clear message that the U.S. economy is not showing signs of rapidly declining inflation. He stated that these figures effectively eliminate any immediate expectations for rate cuts, barring a significant change such as a negative non-farm payrolls outcome.

Innes further noted that the current data does not support the likelihood of the Fed considering rate reductions soon, indicating that more substantial evidence would be required to prompt such a move.

The cautious sentiment extended to Asia, where most markets were closed for a holiday, with Tokyo, Sydney, and Wellington all seeing declines.

Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com, mentioned that the public holidays in China and parts of Europe would slightly thin out the markets, and there’s a tendency towards risk aversion in Asian trading ahead of the Fed’s decision. He added that if the Fed suggests a high probability of no cuts this year or even hints at another hike, it could exacerbate the stock sell-off.

The Japanese yen held steady against the dollar after Monday’s volatility, which saw it hit a new 34-year low against the U.S. currency before making a sharp recovery amid rumors of intervention by Japanese authorities.

While the market has regained some stability, traders remain vigilant for any sudden movements, especially given the significant divergence between the Bank of Japan’s relaxed monetary policy and the tighter policies of other central banks.

Oil prices fell amid optimism for a ceasefire in Gaza, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urging Hamas to agree to a truce. The Palestinian group is considering a proposal for a 40-day ceasefire and a prisoner exchange involving a large number of Palestinian detainees.

Key market figures include:

Nikkei 225: Down 0.6% at 38,189.54

Dollar/yen: Up at 157.82 yen

Euro/dollar: Down at $1.0658

Pound/dollar: Down at $1.2481

Euro/pound: Down at 85.40 pence

West Texas Intermediate: Down 0.9% at $81.17 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: Down 0.8% at $85.65 per barrel

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 1.5% at 37,815.92

FTSE 100: Flat at 8,144.13