Vietnam faces a mix of opportunities and risks with Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency, as officials and experts anticipate impacts from his likely continuation of a protectionist trade stance. During Trump’s previous presidency, Vietnam gained economically from the U.S.-China trade conflict, as U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports led some companies to shift production to Vietnam. Today, however, Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese goods could result in a complex situation for Vietnam, given its deep trade ties with the U.S. and reliance on components from China in its supply chains.
 
Vietnam has a $90-billion trade surplus with the U.S., making it a possible target of Trump's protectionist policies. This surplus is partly driven by its role as an assembly hub for products that still rely on Chinese components, a practice that has occasionally led to sanctions over alleged transshipment. If Trump enacts high tariffs on imports across the board, Vietnam could face restrictions that risk economic fallout.
 
However, additional tariffs on China might accelerate the broader supply chain shift to Southeast Asia, with Vietnam remaining a prime candidate for companies relocating out of China. The Vietnamese stock market saw an uptick in industrial park stocks with Trump's electoral win, reflecting optimism for increased manufacturing demand.
 
To ease trade tensions, Vietnam could consider boosting imports of big-ticket U.S. items like LNG and potentially military equipment, such as Lockheed Martin's C-130 Hercules transport planes. Additionally, Trump’s business interests in a $1.5 billion Vietnamese golf course project could influence diplomatic relations, although the specifics remain uncertain.
 
Experts agree that a second Trump presidency will recalibrate U.S. trade policy in ways that could either benefit or challenge Vietnam’s economic trajectory. While Vietnam’s appeal as a destination for relocated manufacturing from China is expected to persist, potential tariffs and trade restrictions may pose a threat to these gains.
END/WD/RH/