"The meeting with Erdogan, who last visited Iraq in 2011, will prioritise water and security."
 
For his first state visit to neighbouring Iraq in years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to arrive on Monday. The main topics of discussion are likely to be water, oil, and regional security.
 
Erdogan is expected to visit authorities in Arbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq, after meeting with President Abdel Latif Rashid and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani in Baghdad.
 
"Iraq and Turkey have problems, but they also have similarities, interests, and opportunities," Sudani stated at an Atlantic Council event while recently in Washington.
 
"The meeting with Erdogan, who last visited Iraq in 2011, will prioritise water and security," he stated.
 
The journey takes place at a time when regional tensions are rising due to assaults between Israel and Iran and the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip.
 
According to Sudani foreign affairs advisor Farhad Alaaldin, Erdogan would talk about "investments, trade... security aspects of the cooperation between the two countries, water management and water resources" with Iraqi authorities, according to AFP.
 
During the visit, Alaaldin anticipates many memoranda of agreement to be signed.
 
One of the main areas of disagreement is how to share water resources. Baghdad is particularly against Turkey's upstream dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which it claims have made Iraq's water shortage worse.
 
Erdogan declared that, in response to "requests" from the Iraqi side, the water problem will be "one of the most important points" of his visit.
 
"We will make an effort to resolve them, that is also their wish," he stated.
 
Another source of conflict is Iraqi oil exports, since a significant pipeline was closed for more than a year due to legal challenges and technical problems.
Previously, the exports were marketed unilaterally by the autonomous province of Kurdistan through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, without the authorization or supervision of the central authority in Baghdad.
 
The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan, which represents foreign oil businesses operating in the area, estimates that the suspended oil sales have cost Iraq more than $14 billion in missed income.
 
According to a statement released by the Iraqi foreign ministry, Majid al-Lajmawi, Iraq's ambassador to Turkey, expects for "progress on the water and energy issues, and in the process of resuming Iraqi oil exports via Turkey".
 
In addition, the ambassador anticipates the signature of a "strategic framework agreement" pertaining to development, economics, and security.
 
A $17 billion road and rail project called the "Route of Development" is also on the table; this project is anticipated to strengthen commercial relations between the two countries.
 
By 2030, the 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) project will connect the Gulf to the country's northern border with Turkey.
 
Iraq was Turkey's fifth-largest product importer in the first quarter of 2024, purchasing food, metals, chemicals, and other goods.
 
Another issue that is anticipated to be discussed during Erdogan's talks in Iraq is regional security.
 
Turkey and its Western supporters see the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been fighting the Turkish state for decades and is based in several dozen military sites in northern Iraq, as a "terrorist" organisation.
 
It has been said that in order to maintain their strong economic links, Baghdad and the Kurdish regional authority have agreed to put up with Turkey's military actions.
 
However, the operations, which occasionally penetrate far into Iraqi territory, have frequently caused tension in bilateral relations even as Ankara has asked Baghdad to cooperate more in its conflict with the PKK.
 
Nonetheless, Iraqi Defence Minister Thabet al-Abbasi disregarded "joint military operations" between Ankara and Baghdad in a March televised interview.
A "coordination intelligence centre at the appropriate time and place" will be established, he added.
 
The advisor to the prime minister of Iraq, Alaaldin, stated that security concerns will be "highly featured in this trip".
 
"There will be some sort of agreement... and perhaps arrangements to safeguard the borders between Iraq and Turkey where no attacks and no armed groups infiltrate the border from both sides," he stated.
 
"It is something that will be discussed but the exact details have to be worked out."
 
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