Oct 14,V7N- Asian stocks fluctuated on Monday as investors grappled with uncertainty over the specifics of China's recent economic stimulus promises. China's Finance Minister Lan Foan pledged to "significantly increase" debt during a weekend press conference but offered few details on the scale of the stimulus, leaving investors unsure about the potential duration of any market rally.
Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted that onshore investors seem more optimistic than foreign investors regarding Beijing's plans to restructure local government and housing debt. This divergence was reflected in market movements, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipping slightly by 0.01%, while China’s CSI300 blue-chip index rose 1.6%.
The property sector saw gains both onshore and offshore, with the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index advancing 2.2% and the CSI300 Real Estate Index climbing 3.7%, as investors hoped the stimulus measures would benefit China's struggling property market.
However, the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) fell 0.11%, following a 1.7% drop last week when the rally in Chinese stocks slowed. Trading volumes were thinner due to a holiday in Japan.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures edged lower, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% and Nasdaq futures falling 0.25%. European stock futures also dipped slightly, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures down 0.08% and FTSE futures easing 0.05%.
Adding to concerns about China's economic outlook, inflation data released on Sunday showed consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, while producer price deflation worsened. Reflecting this sentiment, the onshore yuan slipped 0.11%, while the offshore yuan fell by 0.2%.
Oil prices also dropped over $1 a barrel due to worries about weakening Chinese demand. Brent crude futures fell 1.32% to $78.00 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.3% to $74.58.
Despite the mixed market signals, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China's 2023 GDP growth to 4.9% from 4.7%, citing more aggressive and coordinated stimulus efforts. However, the bank noted that long-term structural challenges, including deteriorating demographics, debt deleveraging, and global supply chain shifts, remain.
In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar hovered near a seven-week high, supported by strong U.S. economic data. Sterling and the euro both eased slightly ahead of key economic releases, including UK inflation data and a European Central Bank interest rate decision later this week.
END/BUS/RH/
Comment: