Dhaka, Oct 17 (V7N)- Dengue cases saw their first decline in this year’s outbreak last week, dropping from 6,800 cases in week 40 to 6,445 in week 41. Traditionally, dengue cases tend to peak in September and October, leading experts to predict a decrease in October.

However, with a case fatality rate of approximately one death per 200 cases, and 2024 nearing the second-highest dengue death toll in Bangladesh’s history, the critical question was when this decline would begin.

Recent data suggests that the peak may have passed. The highest number of dengue cases in a single day this year was recorded on October 6, with 1,225 cases. Although numbers remain high—1,186 cases were reported on two days in the past week—the peak number has not been exceeded in the last 10 days.

For context, new daily records for dengue cases have been set nearly weekly over the past three months, so going 10 days without a new high may indicate that the outbreak has started to decline.

Case numbers have decreased in multiple districts, notably in Dhaka, which accounts for most of the country’s dengue cases. Dhaka's weekly case count dropped from 4,070 in week 40 to 3,768 in week 41.

This year’s dengue surge began later than in previous years, with cases rising notably in week 31 (July 29 - August 4), compared to last year’s spike, which started around week 27 (July 1 - July 7).

While it is still too early to completely dismiss the possibility of another spike, the cooler temperatures and decreased rainfall expected in the upcoming winter months are likely to reduce mosquito populations and their biting frequency.

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